The kids took Jeanine out for a fancy brunch at the Puritan & Company restaurant to celebrate Mother’s Day and her belated birthday. I was unable to attend because of my soccer match. I joined them later, still in my stinky uniform and cleats, for a visit to the Harvard Art Museum, but missed Nicolai, who was not feeling well, and opted to skip the museum in favor of rest. Jeanine and I also had an opportunity to officially meet Maya’s boyfriend, Brennan, for the first time (technically, we met him in England when we visited the MacKenzie clan). In deference to Maya’s arcane rules about photographing significant others, I was not permitted to include him in the group shot. This can only be done after the third meeting.

My soccer team faced Raynham, our toughest opponent of the season, and squeaked by with a 2-1 victory. There is little doubt that this will be the team we face in the playoff finals should we make it that far. I moved from right wing back to left wing back for this game, and it felt as uncomfortable as the unruly grass field we played on. I did little to distinguish myself offensively, but did a good job of defending against an opponent who was both faster and more skilled than I. This win required hard work from the entire team, and I felt good about my contribution.

My sister, Alissa, is in town for the weekend to celebrate Mother’s Day with her kids, who both live in the Boston area. She joined us for dinner and will spend the night before heading into town, where her clan will try their hand at candle making.

With heavy rain for most of the day, I tackled an indoor project that has been on my to-do list for some time. When we designed the house, I installed a TV in a purpose-built nook at the end of our main hallway. We use it to display family photos from a set of about 300, automatically cycling every 3 minutes. It brings us no end of joy. I have long wanted to set up a similar arrangement for my landscape photographs on the TV in our great room. Unfortunately, for various technical reasons, I have not been able to create a satisfactory solution that does justice to the images. Today, I connected an AppleTV to the system and took the time to select and prepare about 200 photos for display. I am very pleased with the photo quality, but this workaround still has one flaw. Images cycle every 20 seconds, which is about ten times faster than I would like. Unfortunately, this is a limit set by Apple software, and my search for a better solution continues.

Jeanine hosted a lunch gathering of several women with whom she worked at Open Table. She prepared an asparagus shallot quiche with hash brown crust. It was really a work of art. I was banished to my office with the door closed, but was allowed to sample the food after everyone left.

With the S&P 500 in record-breaking territory and the state of the world being what it is, I have become increasingly concerned about the potential for a significant correction in the stock market. I spent several hours today learning about the Buffett Indicator, a ratio of the total United States stock market to GDP. Given that the stock market value represents the present value of expected future economic activity, and that GDP is a measure of the most recent actual economic activity, the ratio of these two data series represents expected future returns relative to current performance. (A bit similar to the P/E ratio of a particular stock.) It stands to reason that this ratio would remain relatively stable over time, increasing slowly as new technology creates more efficient returns from labor and capital. Historically, this indicator has been predictive of major market trends, and it currently stands at 230%, which is high.

Since Buffett popularized this metric, several others have emerged that are more sophisticated. The Shiller CAPE Ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) is often considered a superior long-term valuation model because it smooths out earnings fluctuations over 10 years, reducing the impact of business cycles. As of early this year, the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio is sitting around or above 35-38, indicating an overvalued market.

I have very little interest in the subject of macroeconomics other than to inform a good investment strategy. Today’s journey down the rabbit hole was quite uncharacteristic, but I am glad I put in the time. As a result of what I learned and after consulting with Jeanine, we made a significant reallocation of our investments in anticipation of a significant market correction over the next few years.

I believe this little fellow is a Mint Moth. I found it on the outside of our sliding glass door. When I opened it, and he did not fly away, I deemed him a good candidate for close-up photography. Indeed, he was quite cooperative.

Jeanine was very happy to discover Blue Bells in our yard and asked me to photograph them. While I was at it, I decided to capture an image of the tulips we gathered last weekend. One of the best things about spring is the return of vibrant colors everywhere you look.

Yesterday afternoon, I started shooting the ruby-throated hummingbirds that recently arrived in our neck of the woods. Today, I spent a little more time in proper lighting to get even better images. This was after installing blinds in Nico’s unit of the kids’ house and removing the remaining fence poles of an unattractive chain-link fence that we removed last week.

While waiting for the hummingbirds to show up (typically 30 minutes between visits), I spotted an Osprey flying upriver and managed only to get a single frame. Still, it is the first time I have ever seen one here and is worth adding to the journal..

While working on a photo assignment for the Concord Bridge, a commuter rail train pulled into the West Concord Station, and I was quick to include it in my composition. My goal was to capture an image that showcased West Concord businesses. The panoramic image below, while geometrically distorted, captured the full extent of the shopping area.

Despite an initial bout of rain and otherwise raw weather, Cindy, Rob, Jeanine, and I decided to attend Tulip Mania at the Garden at Elm Bank in Wellesley, sponsored by the Massachusetts Horticultural Society. Even though it was the last day of the event, we found the tulips in full bloom and quite magnificent, as were the other features of the grounds. The price of our tickets included 5 cut tulips each, which we collected at the end of our visit to create a beautiful bouquet that now adorns our dining room table.

Lassen thought our second stop at the Arnold Arboretum was much better. Here, he was allowed to join the humans as they explored the 281-acre grounds, including the Bonsai and Penjing Pavilion, rather than napping in the car.

Our good friends Cindy and Rob Shurtleff are visiting us for the weekend. They have been on the road in their RV for the last 9 weeks, traveling from their home in Washington State with their dog Lassen. After reciprocal tours of their mobile home and our stationary one, we did a 4-mile hike through Wright Woods to Walden Pond and on to Fairhaven Bay. Unfortunately, Lassen, the most well-behaved dog you will ever meet, was not allowed to join us since he has a knack for picking up ticks. We wrapped up the afternoon with a car tour of historic Concord and a brief stop at the Old North Bridge.

Later, we jointly prepared a lovely gnocchi dish and salad, followed by a Blueberry Crumble Cake that Jeanine had made earlier this morning, served with ice cream.

Living so close to the river, we are witnesses to almost everything that transpires, be it wildlife sightings or human activities. Today we watched as two jet skis raced down the river at very high speed (watch the video above, taken by one of our security cameras). The Massachusetts PWC (Personal Water Craft) regulations that apply to jet skis require operating at a no-wake speed of 6MPH or less when within 150 feet of, among other things, a shoreline. Given the average width of the Sudbury River in our area is about 200 feet, you cannot race a jet ski here.

I reported both operators to the New Hampshire Marine Patrol, since the jet skis had New Hampshire-issued registration numbers on the bow.

I hope that they are properly warned to limit high-speed cruising to open water and also reminded that personal floatation devices are mandatory.

Not the best photo, as I was far away and shooting through branches, but still a wonderful moment between our local fox and her kit.

Jeanine and I spent the bulk of the day with Nico at the new house, getting it ready for tenants scheduled to move in on May 1. Both Maya and Kyle stopped in for a while, so we got a chance to see all three kids. Jeanine cleaned, painted, and restored the leather on an old couch. I did some painting and caulking, hung curtains, installed two window air conditioners, and worked with the boys to remove a large section of chain-link fencing.

This morning, I rented a U-Haul trailer to transport our yard waste to the town composting site. Jeanine assisted me in loading what I assumed would be the first of many loads. I was pleasantly surprised when it became apparent that only two trips would be required. The town composting site is only open on Wednesdays (3-5 pm) and Saturdays (9-5 pm) so we were fortunate we could complete the work today in advance of the all day rain predicted for tomorrow.

Spring is such an amazing time of year. In just a matter of days, and in some cases hours, a monochromatic sea of last year’s detritus transforms into an ocean of color. Ferns unfurl so quickly you could swear you see them moving. I spent the entire day in the yard completing my last day of cleanup for the season. Continuing beyond this point risks trampling the new growth that is popping up everywhere. Weather permitting, and town burning permit permitting, I will try to reduce all of the downed limbs I have collected to a pile of ash tomorrow.

Jeanine and I spent a couple of hours in the yard this morning. We deconstructed five waddles that had been used for erosion control during construction, harvesting the hay inside for mulch. We also cleared the front yard of leaves.

Shortly before lunch, we joined Nico at the kids’ new triplex to help him ready his unit for tenants who will move in on May 1. I also addressed two issues that pertain to the entire building. First, I removed all unnecessary wires and components from the gnarled mess of Verizon junction boxes. This was not necessary work, but I could not stand walking past this abomination for another minute. By the time I was done sorting things out, I was able to remove all four junction boxes and two-thirds of the wires. On my next visit, I will wash the siding and fill all the holes. Second, I patched a 3-inch hole in the foundation with concrete. On my last visit, I used an expanding foam to seal the hole and create a substrate for the concrete. Jeanine washed the siding on the front porch for a dramatic improvement to the appearance of the building and went shopping with Nico for various items needed to ready the apartment. I also stabilized a loose flagstone on the front porch, removed old curtains from the rear porch, hammered down hundreds of nail heads that were sitting proud of the decking, and painted a small area of unfinished siding.